Directional Moves. US Treasuries sold off across the belly and long end in April, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 10 basis points from 4.30% to close the month at 4.40%. The move was broadly parallel from the 2-year outwards, though the front end was anchored — the 3-month bill barely moved, ending at 3.68% versus a 3.70% open. The 10-year traded an intramonth range of 16 basis points, touching a low of 4.26% on the 17th before selling off steadily into month-end, closing at the top of the range. The 30-year followed the same +10 basis point path, finishing at 4.98%, within a tight 11-basis-point band — consistent with a market respecting the upper boundary near 5% established during the turbulence of early 2025.

Curve Moves. The curve held its broadly steeper posture throughout April, with the 2s10s spread closing essentially unchanged at +52 basis points versus +51 at the start of the month. The 5s30s spread was similarly stable, ending at +96 basis points — unchanged on the month — as the belly and long end moved in lockstep. The more meaningful steepening was at the front end: the 3-month/10-year spread widened 12 basis points from +60 to +72 basis points, driven by the 10-year's sell-off while the 3-month bill remained anchored near 3.68%. This front-end stability reflects market confidence that the Fed is on hold, with near-term rate cut expectations offering little support to move short rates materially in either direction.

Market Drivers. The month opened with a sharp surprise on payrolls: the March jobs report released on 3 April showed 178,000 nonfarm positions added, well above consensus of 59,000 and a decisive reversal from February's decline, pushing the 10-year 4 basis points higher on the day. Inflationary data compounded the pressure — March CPI printed at 3.3% year-on-year on 10 April, with energy the primary driver following the Iran conflict, while core PCE released on 30 April came in at 3.2% year-on-year, both measures sitting well above the Fed's 2% target. The FOMC met on 29 April and held the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but the decision was notably fractured: the committee voted 8-4, with Stephen Miran dissenting in favour of a cut and Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissenting against the statement's easing bias — the most divided vote since October 1992. That same day, Powell confirmed he would remain on the Fed board through 2028 despite his chairmanship ending, with Kevin Warsh set to assume the role next month. The cumulative effect of sticky inflation, a resilient labour market, and a central bank visibly at odds with itself drove a progressive cheapening of duration into month-end, with the 10-year adding 6 basis points on 29 April alone to close at 4.42%.